The Blizzard of 2026: Climate Change, Snow, and What It Really Means
Here’s the core idea to start with: the answer to why this winter was so snowy comes down to the clouds—and what they’re carrying.
What’s happening to snow in New England?
New England winters are becoming shorter, milder, and notably snow-poor in many areas, even as some coastal parts see surprisingly heavy snowfall at times.
In Massachusetts, winter temperatures have risen by nearly 8 degrees Fahrenheit since the beginning of the last century, a shift noted in a study led by Stephen Young, a professor of environmental sustainability at Salem State University. The same study also found that the state has lost roughly 30 days per year with snow on the ground since the early 2000s.
Yet, over the past 50 years, total annual snowfall has increased in Boston and along much of New England’s coast, according to Climate Central, a nonpartisan organization that researches climate change. This winter currently ranks as the ninth snowiest on record for Boston.
The number of major snowstorms—those that dump 20 inches or more—has also climbed, Young noted. In Boston, there have been 10 such storms in the past four decades, compared with only three from 1900 to 1985. While measurement methods have evolved over time, the difference remains striking and suggests a real trend.
“Snow days aren’t history yet,” Young says.
So, how could climate change bring more snow?
The short answer is: by boosting precipitation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and warmer ocean surfaces increase evaporation. Think of a larger sponge that can soak up more water. When that moisture-laden air meets cold Arctic air, the atmosphere squeezes out the moisture as snow.
“That moisture fuels these coastal storms,” explains Daniel Bader, a senior staff associate at Columbia Climate School.
A growing piece of the puzzle is the link between nor’easters and climate change. A 2025 study from the University of Pennsylvania found that the strongest nor’easters are producing higher maximum wind speeds and heavier hourly precipitation, raising concerns about future “super-nor’easters” that could bring paralyzing snowfalls.
Ambarish Karmalkar, an assistant professor of geosciences at the University of Rhode Island, says the findings fit with what we know: storms over warmer oceans intensify and pick up more moisture. If the air remains cold enough, that moisture falls as snow on the land.
Researchers are also investigating whether climate change played a role in the bursts of Arctic air that dipped into the Northeast this winter, creating opportunities for snow. Some studies link global warming to disruptions in the Arctic’s fast-moving wind patterns, which can allow frigid air to sweep southward, but this connection is still debated.
Is climate change to blame for this blizzard?
It’s not possible to say with certainty yet. Attribution science—the science of linking specific extreme weather events to climate change—has advanced, but tying a single snowstorm to global warming remains tricky.
Several factors make attribution challenging, notes Shelby Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central. The physics of large snowstorms are complex; historical records before 1970 are patchy, making comparisons difficult; natural weather patterns (like Arctic outbreaks) can mask underlying climate signals; and even small temperature differences can drastically change precipitation types.
Mathew Barlow, a climate science professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, argues that the most straightforward way to interpret the blizzard’s connection to climate change is to view it as shifting the odds. “It’s always possible for a strong storm to happen by chance, but I think we’ve substantially upped the odds,” he says.
For example, the storm formed in waters that were warmer than usual, which increased evaporation and moisture availability. During its development, the Gulf of Mexico ran about three to six degrees Fahrenheit above average for the season, a difference Climate Central says made the event up to 60 times more likely because of climate change. In the western Atlantic, surface temperatures were about one to two degrees above average, translating to roughly 10 to 30 times higher likelihood due to warming.
Even if climate change helped fuel this blizzard, we may not see a repeat of such historic storms anytime soon.
“Eventually, we’ll be too warm to sustain these big snow events,” says Young. “Right now, though, we’re in a window where heavy snow keeps coming in bursts as the climate warms.”
About the author: Kate Selig can be reached at kate.selig@globe.com and on X @kate_selig.
